Nate Silver Predicts Cruz and Clinton Will Win Iowa
RUSH: The FiveThirtyEight project. This Nate Silver, wunderkind. At the New York Times, he had this polling thing predicting Democrats will win everything. So they loved the guy. And ESPN hired him away. So he goes over to ESPN and started projecting things over there and the bloom went off the rose because Nate Silver started predicting Republicans to win some things. The liberals told him to go to hell, and so forth. So he's still over there, and he's still running his polling data, working out his in-depth analysis of polling data.
And he has concluded here (they have published in The Politico) that "Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from [today], new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show. Cruz has a 51% chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29% chance of winning Feb. 1." Now, this guy... The FiveThirtyEight bunch, led by Nate Silver, are considered to be infallible.
Except they're not anymore, but they were. So Cruz has a 51% chance to win, Trump at 29%. The establishment's all-in on Cruz winning Iowa, by the way, 'cause they think if Trump wins Iowa, it's all over. So they're hoping Cruz wins 'cause it's a firewall. Their fear is that with just one victory, the first place there's a chance for votes to be cast, and if Trump wins it they think it's gonna create a momentum that will make it essentially all over, unstoppable. So the establishment... These people got to be so confused.
Day to day, they don't know who to be for 'cause none of their candidates can rise anywhere near the top. And instead of getting the message that they're the ones out of it, that they are the ones who lack much in common with the majority of their own voters, they're still trying to conquer and come up with ways to sabotage whoever it is that does win on the Republican side. It's a breathtaking thing to behold. I wanted you to be alerted to it.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/538-cruz-clinton-trump-sanders-rubio-217901
RUSH: The FiveThirtyEight project. This Nate Silver, wunderkind. At the New York Times, he had this polling thing predicting Democrats will win everything. So they loved the guy. And ESPN hired him away. So he goes over to ESPN and started projecting things over there and the bloom went off the rose because Nate Silver started predicting Republicans to win some things. The liberals told him to go to hell, and so forth. So he's still over there, and he's still running his polling data, working out his in-depth analysis of polling data.
And he has concluded here (they have published in The Politico) that "Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from [today], new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show. Cruz has a 51% chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29% chance of winning Feb. 1." Now, this guy... The FiveThirtyEight bunch, led by Nate Silver, are considered to be infallible.
Except they're not anymore, but they were. So Cruz has a 51% chance to win, Trump at 29%. The establishment's all-in on Cruz winning Iowa, by the way, 'cause they think if Trump wins Iowa, it's all over. So they're hoping Cruz wins 'cause it's a firewall. Their fear is that with just one victory, the first place there's a chance for votes to be cast, and if Trump wins it they think it's gonna create a momentum that will make it essentially all over, unstoppable. So the establishment... These people got to be so confused.
Day to day, they don't know who to be for 'cause none of their candidates can rise anywhere near the top. And instead of getting the message that they're the ones out of it, that they are the ones who lack much in common with the majority of their own voters, they're still trying to conquer and come up with ways to sabotage whoever it is that does win on the Republican side. It's a breathtaking thing to behold. I wanted you to be alerted to it.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/538-cruz-clinton-trump-sanders-rubio-217901