Trump Doubles Lead in NBC/WSJ Poll, But the Internals Tell Us More
RUSH: Let's get to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, because there's a lot here. Now, the headline for this poll, as supplied by both NBC and the Wall Street Journal: "Trump More Than Doubles His National Lead" in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Now, in the Wall Street Journal story, you have to run the numbers yourself to get to Trump's number.
They do not give you the overall Trump number.
They do report that his lead has more than doubled, but they don't give you the number. You have to run the numbers yourself, which, of course, we did here. But the NBC News version is what I want to get to first here. "Donald Trump has more than doubled his national lead in the Republican presidential race ahead of Thursday night's GOP debate here, according to the results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is the first choice of 33% of national Republican primary voters -- his highest percentage in the poll. He's followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 13% and Ben Carson at 12%.
"Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are tied at 5%. No other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 3%." So Trump and Cruz have 53% of the vote between them, which is a nightmare. It's a nightmare for the Republican ruling class, and they're admitting it. It's a nightmare. Now, "Trump's 13-point lead over Cruz is an increase from last month, when he held a five-point advantage over the Texas senator, 27% to 22%." However, get this: "Yet in a hypothetical one-on-one race between the two Republicans, Cruz tops Trump, 51 percent to 43%, while Trump beats Rubio in their one-on-one matchup, 52% to 45%."
Now, this aspect of the poll is referenced and written about over at the Washington Post by a guy named Philip Bump, who has a story that says only Cruz can beat Trump. Within the boundaries of the Republican primary, only Cruz can beat Trump. It's become the conventional wisdom of the Drive-By Media, and it is so stated by virtue of poll results here in the NBC News/Washington Post poll. Again, even though Trump has a 33%... Let's see. What's the lead? It's 13-point lead over Cruz nationally, 33-20.
If you tell the same respondents, "Okay, it's a contest between Trump and Cruz. Who do you want?" Cruz beats Trump 51-43. Now, you might say, "Well, voters are confused." No. They're just answering the questions they're asked. "Who do you prefer for president?" "Donald Trump." "Okay, if it's just Trump and Cruz, who do you want?" "Oh, we want Cruz." By an eight-point margin. Trump does beat Rubio. That was seen as big news the Washington Post, who decided to write about how only Cruz can beat Trump.
"In a three-way contest featuring [Trump, Cruz, and Rubio], Trump gets 40%, Cruz 31% and Rubio 26%," which, it says here, "underscore[es] the overall strengthen out of the outsider/insurgent wing of the Republican Party." If you combine 'em again, you get 71 there. Trump and Cruz are considered "outsiders." So you got 71. "But maybe the most striking finding in this poll..." And this is. I'm reading from the story itself. This is not analysis. This is... Actually it's Mark Snyder who wrote the story for NBC News.
"Maybe the most striking finding in this NBC/WSJ poll is the growing GOP acceptance of Trump. Back in March, only 23% of Republican primary voters said they could see themselves supporting the real-estate mogul. Now that number stands at 65%." And that's why they are mad at me, Snerdley. Before the day's over, I'm gonna be blamed for the Dow being down what, 500 points? You know, I was thinking about that. You know what happens when you go to your broker and your portfolio's down?
They blame, "Well, of course! It's what happened in the market. There's nothing we could do. Wall Street had a bad year, bad month," whatever you're talking about. If the market goes way up but your portfolio's not, you still get blamed. You get blamed for misallocation. You get blamed for not having enough in equity. You get blamed for not having enough stocks, too much in bonds or what have you. At any rate, this is a significant increase. We're talking 10 months. Trump's gone from 23% of Republican primary voters saying they could see themselves supporting him to 65%.
That's another thing everybody was told would never happen, remember? Back in the early days of Trump, we had the Drive-Bys, the noted experts in all this, assuring everybody, "Don't worry! Don't worry! Trump's never gonna amount to anything. He's just a kook, you know? He's a showman. He's a circus act. He's in it for himself. He's not even gonna last. The majority are voters are never..." They assured us that this would not happen. Trump's support was to be very low and supposed to stay very low. It was supposed to have a "hard ceiling."
He would never, ever be able to grow.
"We've been at Trump peak for a couple months now. Don't worry about it," they said.
Now it seems like these same people in the Drive-Bys are saying that it's Trump's race to lose. Now we go to the Wall Street Journal version of the story: "Donald Trump Widens His Lead in Republican Presidential Race -- Businessman tops Sen. Ted Cruz by 13 points in WSJ/NBC poll with less than three weeks to go before the first votes," and again, they highlight in this, which is... I mean, they should. It's in their own poll. Sixty-five percent of Republican primary voters could see themselves backing Trump. It was 23% back in March. At the same time, the share of Republican primary voters who say they can support either Cruz or Trump has grown to 71%. So it's got some interesting internal information here -- and none of it was supposed to happen.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-more-doubles-national-lead-nbc-wsj-poll-n496711
http://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-donald-trump-widens-his-lead-in-republican-presidential-race-1452808842
RUSH: Let's get to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, because there's a lot here. Now, the headline for this poll, as supplied by both NBC and the Wall Street Journal: "Trump More Than Doubles His National Lead" in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Now, in the Wall Street Journal story, you have to run the numbers yourself to get to Trump's number.
They do not give you the overall Trump number.
They do report that his lead has more than doubled, but they don't give you the number. You have to run the numbers yourself, which, of course, we did here. But the NBC News version is what I want to get to first here. "Donald Trump has more than doubled his national lead in the Republican presidential race ahead of Thursday night's GOP debate here, according to the results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is the first choice of 33% of national Republican primary voters -- his highest percentage in the poll. He's followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 13% and Ben Carson at 12%.
"Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are tied at 5%. No other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 3%." So Trump and Cruz have 53% of the vote between them, which is a nightmare. It's a nightmare for the Republican ruling class, and they're admitting it. It's a nightmare. Now, "Trump's 13-point lead over Cruz is an increase from last month, when he held a five-point advantage over the Texas senator, 27% to 22%." However, get this: "Yet in a hypothetical one-on-one race between the two Republicans, Cruz tops Trump, 51 percent to 43%, while Trump beats Rubio in their one-on-one matchup, 52% to 45%."
Now, this aspect of the poll is referenced and written about over at the Washington Post by a guy named Philip Bump, who has a story that says only Cruz can beat Trump. Within the boundaries of the Republican primary, only Cruz can beat Trump. It's become the conventional wisdom of the Drive-By Media, and it is so stated by virtue of poll results here in the NBC News/Washington Post poll. Again, even though Trump has a 33%... Let's see. What's the lead? It's 13-point lead over Cruz nationally, 33-20.
If you tell the same respondents, "Okay, it's a contest between Trump and Cruz. Who do you want?" Cruz beats Trump 51-43. Now, you might say, "Well, voters are confused." No. They're just answering the questions they're asked. "Who do you prefer for president?" "Donald Trump." "Okay, if it's just Trump and Cruz, who do you want?" "Oh, we want Cruz." By an eight-point margin. Trump does beat Rubio. That was seen as big news the Washington Post, who decided to write about how only Cruz can beat Trump.
"In a three-way contest featuring [Trump, Cruz, and Rubio], Trump gets 40%, Cruz 31% and Rubio 26%," which, it says here, "underscore[es] the overall strengthen out of the outsider/insurgent wing of the Republican Party." If you combine 'em again, you get 71 there. Trump and Cruz are considered "outsiders." So you got 71. "But maybe the most striking finding in this poll..." And this is. I'm reading from the story itself. This is not analysis. This is... Actually it's Mark Snyder who wrote the story for NBC News.
"Maybe the most striking finding in this NBC/WSJ poll is the growing GOP acceptance of Trump. Back in March, only 23% of Republican primary voters said they could see themselves supporting the real-estate mogul. Now that number stands at 65%." And that's why they are mad at me, Snerdley. Before the day's over, I'm gonna be blamed for the Dow being down what, 500 points? You know, I was thinking about that. You know what happens when you go to your broker and your portfolio's down?
They blame, "Well, of course! It's what happened in the market. There's nothing we could do. Wall Street had a bad year, bad month," whatever you're talking about. If the market goes way up but your portfolio's not, you still get blamed. You get blamed for misallocation. You get blamed for not having enough in equity. You get blamed for not having enough stocks, too much in bonds or what have you. At any rate, this is a significant increase. We're talking 10 months. Trump's gone from 23% of Republican primary voters saying they could see themselves supporting him to 65%.
That's another thing everybody was told would never happen, remember? Back in the early days of Trump, we had the Drive-Bys, the noted experts in all this, assuring everybody, "Don't worry! Don't worry! Trump's never gonna amount to anything. He's just a kook, you know? He's a showman. He's a circus act. He's in it for himself. He's not even gonna last. The majority are voters are never..." They assured us that this would not happen. Trump's support was to be very low and supposed to stay very low. It was supposed to have a "hard ceiling."
He would never, ever be able to grow.
"We've been at Trump peak for a couple months now. Don't worry about it," they said.
Now it seems like these same people in the Drive-Bys are saying that it's Trump's race to lose. Now we go to the Wall Street Journal version of the story: "Donald Trump Widens His Lead in Republican Presidential Race -- Businessman tops Sen. Ted Cruz by 13 points in WSJ/NBC poll with less than three weeks to go before the first votes," and again, they highlight in this, which is... I mean, they should. It's in their own poll. Sixty-five percent of Republican primary voters could see themselves backing Trump. It was 23% back in March. At the same time, the share of Republican primary voters who say they can support either Cruz or Trump has grown to 71%. So it's got some interesting internal information here -- and none of it was supposed to happen.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-more-doubles-national-lead-nbc-wsj-poll-n496711
http://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-donald-trump-widens-his-lead-in-republican-presidential-race-1452808842