fireman5214's JumboTweets
Created on 18/1/12 by fireman5214@NazarethPatch
Real Wx Services
Information on the SWFE (southwest flow event) from the 12 Z ECM by 96 hours .01-.10 liquid precipitation has fallen all of eastern PA into NJ and NYC north into Southern NY ..540 line is N of KPIT but then goes south east from there along the PA/MD border ..temperatures are supportive of snow.. by 102 hrs .25-.50 in a narrow pocket from central PA to NW NJ to SE NY. Other areas .10-.25..540 line at this point is just to the south of KABE dividing PA and NJ in half till you get to western PA where it turns NW to around erie.. temperatures still supportive of snow...though not liking the closeness of that 540 line..by 108 precipitation is moving out with just .01-.10 left over ..10-.25 along the NJ coast yet..540 line has lifted north into SNE and 850s have warmed up ..So essentially what the ECM would be suggesting is a 1-3 inch snowfall in places like KPHL & NYC with 3-6 inches in the interior. Heaviest precipitation never really gets any further north then Southern New England.. That is the good news off the 12 Z ECM (before the warmer pattern begins) http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/393926_305220106195378_184078291642894_963179_1373724029_n.jpg- Created on 19/1/12 by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fans!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created on 19/1/12 by fireman5214@NazarethPatch Real Wx Services - http://www.facebook.com/B.W.B.T.R?sk=wall
Alright at 66 hrs there is no precipitation yet into eastern PA or SE PA or NJ. The 540 line is at about NC PA but across the western half in that area to just under the cleveland area in Ohio....and then goes Southeast similar to last night. QPF is .01-.10 in central PA and then heaviest is NW PA to SW NY which is .10-.25. Temperatures are along the coast 30-35 and inland colder..72 hrs 540 line is North of ABE .. then rises west Northwest to about Erie PA..north of cleveland and right across NYC. QPF is .01-.10 southern half of PA to NJ to NYC into SNE. .10-.25 across southern and central NY to central PA (when looking at the state from east to west) and across NW PA to NE Ohio and NC ohio it is .25-.50. Temperatures are as follows: 35-40 NYC east central NJ and southern Jersey and 30-35 SE PA and below freezing all other areas. 78 hrs the 540 line now goes along the PA NY border and into SE NY across N CT...back west over the lake North of the Ohio border. Good amount of QPF at this hour across the region ..heaviest in the Northern tier of PA to southern NY which is .25-.50 .850s at this point however are above freezing from east central PA west ..from just north of ABE they are still below freezing into extreme northern half of NJ.. Temperatures at this time frame are 35-45 from SE PA to NYC 30-35 around the ABE region..south of PA they are 40-50.. 84 hrs heaviest QPF is now south of PA region and into SNE .540 line has not changed any..850s are warm across SNE (near the coast) all of of PA but the very northern tier...Temps are 30 or below from ABE north ..35-40 across southeast PA central Nj and south in NJ...
Again looks like a Snow to ice scenario with locations like NYC and KPHL probably going over to plain rain.... - Created on 19/1/12 by fireman5214http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/407439_306552352728820_184078291642894_966461_587406375_n.jpg Real Weather Services: In addition to this map above:
NYC 1-3 inches snow to wintery mix
CT 4-8 inches mainly snow-some sleet (away from coast)
NW NJ 4-8 inches
Central NJ 3-5 inches with .10 ice potential
SNJ and south less then an inch with a turn to rain
Discussion: This is what we like to call a southwest flow event . What this means is that this is a purely driven warm air advection event meaning warmer air flowing in aloft over top of the colder air at the surface..
Cold air is being supplied by a shot of arctic air ..however this arctic air is not nearly as impressive as the arctic air that came in at the beginning of January. So this is really a modified arctic air mass in place with a mediocre high pressure to the North but ..cold enough that we will see a moderate snow storm in what has been an overall warmer winter. We will take what we can get I guess you could say.
Guidance such as the ECM does bring the 540 line to close to the Lehigh Valley region and the GFS and ECM also bring close to or slightly above freezing at the 925 mb level which is the reason for the winter mix expectation as well as the snow!
By 12 Z Saturday morning a weak wave of low pressure will be located over eastern KY with a warm front extending to the east of it. This low will generally move in a east northeast fashion...to a position east SE of Long Island NY by saturday evening.
What could go wrong?
1.Models tend to under do mid level warming ..so if the mid level warming ends up being stronger then snow totals would be lower and ice would be more of a factor..
2. Winds will be out of the east. This means that the boundary temperatures could end up being progged to cold ...
This is not exactly the most perfect set up ..it is more a threading the needle type scenario.
As is we expect start time to be between midnight and 3 AM and end time to be before midnight on saturday night.
Travel will become tricky and slippery so if you have to be out and about take caution!
- Created on 19/1/12 by fireman5214@NazarethPatch http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/407439_306552352728820_184078291642894_966461_587406375_n.jpg Real Weather Services: In addition to this map above:
NYC 1-3 inches snow to wintery mix
CT 4-8 inches mainly snow-some sleet (away from coast)
NW NJ 4-8 inches
Central NJ 3-5 inches with .10 ice potential
SNJ and south less then an inch with a turn to rain
Discussion: This is what we like to call a southwest flow event . What this means is that this is a purely driven warm air advection event meaning warmer air flowing in aloft over top of the colder air at the surface..
Cold air is being supplied by a shot of arctic air ..however this arctic air is not nearly as impressive as the arctic air that came in at the beginning of January. So this is really a modified arctic air mass in place with a mediocre high pressure to the North but ..cold enough that we will see a moderate snow storm in what has been an overall warmer winter. We will take what we can get I guess you could say.
Guidance such as the ECM does bring the 540 line to close to the Lehigh Valley region and the GFS and ECM also bring close to or slightly above freezing at the 925 mb level which is the reason for the winter mix expectation as well as the snow!
By 12 Z Saturday morning a weak wave of low pressure will be located over eastern KY with a warm front extending to the east of it. This low will generally move in a east northeast fashion...to a position east SE of Long Island NY by saturday evening.
What could go wrong?
1.Models tend to under do mid level warming ..so if the mid level warming ends up being stronger then snow totals would be lower and ice would be more of a factor..
2. Winds will be out of the east. This means that the boundary temperatures could end up being progged to cold ...
This is not exactly the most perfect set up ..it is more a threading the needle type scenario.
As is we expect start time to be between midnight and 3 AM and end time to be before midnight on saturday night.
Travel will become tricky and slippery so if you have to be out and about take caution!
- Created on 20/1/12 by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created on 21/1/12 by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created on 21/1/12 by fireman5214SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-221200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
540 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
...ICY ROADS TONIGHT...
MANY ROADS OVER NEW JERSEY, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE AND THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WILL BE ICY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING AND ROADS THAT WERE UNTREATED WILL RETAIN THE
SNOW AND ICE THAT FELL EARLIER. EVEN LOCATIONS WHERE ICE AND SNOW
MELTED DURING THE DAY WILL EXPERIENCE PROBLEMS WITH BLACK ICE AS
UNEVAPORATED WATER REFREEZES.
IF YOU ARE DRIVING TONIGHT, PLEASE DRIVE VERY CAREFULLY. REDUCE
YOUR SPEED, LEAVE AS MUCH ROOM AS POSSIBLE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND
OTHERS AND TRY NOT TO MAKE ANY SUDDEN TURNS OR STOPS.
- Created 4 weeks, 1 day ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 4 weeks ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 6 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 5 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 4 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 3 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 2 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks, 1 day ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 3 weeks ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 2 weeks, 6 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 2 weeks, 5 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 2 weeks, 4 days ago by fireman5214Welcome Fellow Football Fan!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/superbowl - Created 2 weeks, 3 days ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
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http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/ - Created 2 weeks, 3 days ago by fireman5214@JimCantore Happy National Weather Person's Day - Sunday February 5 is National Weatherperson's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, a Boston physician and one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774. He took the first balloon weather observation over London in 1784.
- Created 2 weeks, 3 days ago by fireman5214@TWCBreaking Happy National Weather Person's Day - Sunday February 5 is National Weatherperson's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, a Boston physician and one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774. He took the first balloon weather observation over London in 1784.
- Created 2 weeks, 3 days ago by fireman5214@twcmarkelliot Happy National Weather Person's Day - Sunday February 5 is National Weatherperson's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, a Boston physician and one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774. He took the first balloon weather observation over London in 1784.
- Created 2 weeks, 2 days ago by fireman5214@StephanieAbrams any update on the phillipines earthquake? I have a friend there and they sent me this via Yahoo Messenger at 3:17am EDT " Omg, were in cebu had a 6.8 earthquake.... Then we had a tsunami warning to take precautions
- Created 2 weeks, 2 days ago by fireman5214@NazarethPatch Source: http://www.facebook.com/Lehighvalleyweatherpatrol?sk=wall Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol with Bobby & Suzy
***ALERT*** Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol 1st call on the Wednesday afternoon and evening snow... not a big event, but despite being above freezing in most areas South of I-80 at the start, temperatures aloft are well below freezing, and precipitation will fall as snow in most places except where it may mix with rain in extreme SE PA and farther South. For the Lehigh Valley, it should be snowing throughout, but may be melting as it hits the surface for a time, cutting down on accumulations. For the Poconos and higher elevations, expect mostly snow and sticking on grassy surfaces, up to 2". Time frame is from around noon Wednesday through Wednesday evening, and precipitation will be on the light side, with under 0.25" liquid equivalent. Map: http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/432001_321942407842132_177868848916156_854517_1141418517_n.jpg - Created 2 weeks, 1 day ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/ - Created 1 week, 6 days ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
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- Created 1 week, 5 days ago by fireman5214Until the afternoon update comes out here is what the NWS states.. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>024-027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-110830-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
328 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS
LATER TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING. ROADS MAY BE
LOCALLY SLIPPERY INTO SUNDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
for future reference to a snowfall map please visit: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=324331784269861&set=a.177885982247776.32374.177868848916156&type=1&theater - Created 1 week, 5 days ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/ - Created 1 week, 1 day ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/
- Created 6 days, 19 hours ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
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- Created 6 days, 3 hours ago by fireman5214@nazarethpatch NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012
VALID 12Z MON FEB 20 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2012
...COASTAL STORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY BRING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON DAY 3...
THE THREAT FOR A WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON DAY 3. A GENERAL PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE IN THE FAVORED LOCATION ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. OVERALL TIMING OF THIS SURFACE WAVE
TRACKING TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS AND EVENTUALLY SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST OUT TO SEA HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN. BUT THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS DEFINITELY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
- Created 6 days, 3 hours ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash - Created 3 days, 20 hours ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/
- Created 3 days, 8 hours ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/
- Created 20 hours, 50 minutes ago by fireman5214Heads Up Zeekler Registered Bidders!!
Zeek has finally done LOST HIS MIND!! In the next 5 weeks we are auctioning off:
A KILLER Vacation
$5000 Cash
A BRAND NEW MUSTANG CONVERTIBLE
If you (as a registered Zeekler bidder) buy ANY VIP ($1/bid) bid pack we will MATCH your bids in our first ever BOGO offer!! That's right... You heard me...BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!!
Register Now to Buy your BOGO VIP Bids!
http://fireman5214.zeekler.com/VIPsplash/
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